Stoke City 2–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hull City

N. Powell 58'

M. Vrančić 35'

9/25/2021

Championship · Round 9bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Stoke City40%

×Draw27%

Hull City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.18

Stoke City

1.33

Hull City

1.18

Stoke City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

1.17

creates per match

1.12

1.24

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Stoke City

1.17

Hull City

1.12

allows per match

Stoke City

1.24

Hull City

1.49

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Stoke City+0.13scores more

Hull City+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

67%

Stoke City or Hull City

73%

Draw or Hull City

60%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

18%

Hull City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

74%

Stoke City 2+ goals

38%

Stoke City 3+ goals

15%

Hull City 1+ goals

69%

Hull City 2+ goals

33%

Hull City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

55%

Hull City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 61 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.49 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.17 + Hull City defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hull City attack 1.12 + Stoke City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stoke City scores more

40%

level

27%

Hull City scores more

33%

Stoke City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Vrančić

Stoke City · M

8.0

Match Events

35'

M. Vrančić↳ R. Sawyers

58'

N. Powell

61'

G. Moncur← T. Smith

61'

A. Cannon← R. Smallwood

66'

S. Surridge← M. Vrančić

70'

71'

78'

87'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeHull

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots12

1Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots12

5On Target4

4Off Target5

1Blocked3

4Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

452Total Passes429

355Accurate Passes339

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2