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Hull City vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stoke City
Stoke City
E. Matazo 6'
A. Moran 74'
Ali Al Hamadi 43'
2/1/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 51+ matches

Hull City44%
×Draw26%
Stoke City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.47
Stoke City
1.16

Hull City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Stoke City
1.05

allows per match

Hull City
1.26
Stoke City
1.62

finishing

Hull City-0.12scores less
Stoke City-0.29scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
70%
Hull City or Stoke City
74%
Draw or Stoke City
56%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
22%
Stoke City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
77%
Hull City 2+ goals
43%
Hull City 3+ goals
18%
Stoke City 1+ goals
69%
Stoke City 2+ goals
32%
Stoke City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
60%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 54 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Stoke City defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Hull City defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hull City scores more
44%
level
26%
Stoke City scores more
30%

Hull City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
V. JohanssonStoke CityStoke City · G
8.3

Match Events

6'
E. Matazo↳ S. McLoughlin
30'
J. Tchamadeu← L. Gooch
43'
Ali Al Hamadi
56'
L. Barry← A. Kamara
56'
L. Coyle← C. Drameh
56'
K. Joseph← João Pedro
60'
Matty Jacob
60'
A. Moran← Ali Al Hamadi
60'
L. Koumas← J. Wilson-Esbrand
71'
M. Crooks← E. Matazo
74'
A. Moran↳ L. Koumas
82'
N. Amrabat← J. Gelhardt
84'
E. Tezgel← W. Burger
90+2'
Enda Stevens

Possession

58%Hull

Shots

22Hull

Pass accuracy

52%Hull

Statistics

HullStoke
Overview
58%Possession42%
22Total Shots11
1.73Expected Goals (xG)1.14
8Corners4
10Fouls11
Shots
22Total Shots11
8On Target5
8Off Target5
6Blocked1
13Inside Box9
9Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
473Total Passes331
397Accurate Passes260
84%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
0.82Goals Prevented0.82
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

Championship: Hull City 1–2 Stoke City

Stoke City beat Hull City 2-1 in Championship on February 1, 2025.

Goals: E. Matazo (6'), Ali Al Hamadi (43'), A. Moran (74').

Hull City controlled possession (58%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.