Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stoke City vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Stoke City
Stoke City
Preview
14:00
Burnley
Burnley
4/3/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Bet365 Stadium
Big match
49%
Burnley
model favours
25%26%49%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stoke City25%
×Draw26%
Burnley49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stoke City
0.98
Burnley
1.51

Burnley creates 54% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

Stoke City
1.43
Burnley
1.77

allows per match

Stoke City
1.25
Burnley
0.54

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw
51%
Stoke City or Burnley
74%
Draw or Burnley
75%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+
9%
Burnley wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals
62%
Stoke City 2+ goals
26%
Stoke City 3+ goals
8%
Burnley 1+ goals
78%
Burnley 2+ goals
44%
Burnley 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)
33%
Burnley (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.77, concedes 0.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.43 + Burnley defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.98

Burnley attack 1.77 + Stoke City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stoke City scores more
25%
level
26%
Burnley scores more
49%

Burnley at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
LLLLL
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stoke City face Burnley (Championship)

Championship returns with Stoke City hosting Burnley. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stoke City host Burnley at Bet365 Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.