Burnley 1–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

A. Barnes 89'

12/12/2017

Premier League · Round 17Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Burnley42%

×Draw27%

Stoke City31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.11

Burnley

1.33

Stoke City

1.11

Burnley creates 20% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 74 away

1.04

creates per match

0.91

1.31

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Burnley

1.04

Stoke City

0.91

allows per match

Burnley

1.31

Stoke City

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

69%

Burnley or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

58%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

19%

Stoke City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

74%

Burnley 2+ goals

38%

Burnley 3+ goals

15%

Stoke City 1+ goals

67%

Stoke City 2+ goals

30%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

57%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 157 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Burnley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more

42%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

31%

Burnley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

N. Pope

Burnley · G

7.7

Match Events

41'

C. Taylor← S. Ward

66'

K. Wimmer← K. Zouma

71'

A. Barnes← J. Hendrick

82'

S. Vokes← C. Wood

84'

E. Choupo-Moting← X. Shaqiri

89'

A. Barnes↳ S. Arfield

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyStoke

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots14

6Corners4

6Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots14

2On Target7

5Off Target6

3Blocked1

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

392Total Passes380

251Accurate Passes240

64%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls14

4Offsides2