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Burnley vs Stoke City — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
G. Boyd 58'
4/4/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Burnley42%
×Draw27%
Stoke City31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.33
Stoke City
1.11

Burnley creates 20% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 74 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.04
Stoke City
0.91

allows per match

Burnley
1.31
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
69%
Burnley or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
58%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
19%
Stoke City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
74%
Burnley 2+ goals
38%
Burnley 3+ goals
15%
Stoke City 1+ goals
67%
Stoke City 2+ goals
30%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
57%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 157 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Burnley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more
42%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
31%

Burnley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
B. MeeBurnleyBurnley · D
7.9

Match Events

24'
Stephen Ward
30'
Joey Barton
57'
R. Brady← S. Defour
58'
G. Boyd↳ J. Hendrick
71'
P. Crouch← S. Berahino
76'
Charlie Adam
78'
A. Barnes← A. Gray
85'
J. Tarkowski← S. Vokes
85'
I. Afellay← J. Allen
88'
Bruno Martins Indi
90'
George Boyd

Possession

48%Burnley

Shots

7Burnley

Pass accuracy

49%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyStoke
Overview
48%Possession52%
7Total Shots15
3Corners5
9Fouls16
Shots
7Total Shots15
3On Target2
1Off Target7
3Blocked6
4Inside Box8
3Outside Box7
Passing
48%Possession52%
372Total Passes400
242Accurate Passes275
65%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls16
3Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Burnley vs Stoke City

Burnley beat Stoke City 1-0 in Premier League on April 4, 2017.

Goals: G. Boyd (58').

Stoke City controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.