Stoke City 2–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Burnley

Muniesa 35'

J. Walters 20'

12/3/2016

Premier League · Round 14bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City45%

×Draw26%

Burnley29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.14

Stoke City

1.50

Burnley

1.14

Stoke City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 156 away

1.31

creates per match

0.96

1.31

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

Burnley

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

71%

Stoke City or Burnley

74%

Draw or Burnley

55%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

23%

Burnley wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

78%

Stoke City 2+ goals

44%

Stoke City 3+ goals

19%

Burnley 1+ goals

68%

Burnley 2+ goals

32%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

61%

Burnley (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Burnley attack 0.96 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stoke City scores more

45%

level

26%

Burnley scores more

29%

Stoke City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Muniesa

Stoke City · D

8.5

Match Events

14'

Jeff Hendrick

20'

J. Walters↳ M. Diouf

35'

Muniesa↳ M. Arnautović

54'

Marc Muniesa

61'

J. Allen← X. Shaqiri

70'

Giannelli Imbula

71'

P. Crouch← M. Arnautović

77'

S. Vokes← G. Boyd

81'

J. Tarkowski← J. Flanagan

85'

Mame Biram Diouf

87'

G. Whelan← C. Adam

88'

Ashley Barnes

90'

M. Kightly← S. Arfield

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeBurnley

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots14

4Corners9

7Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots14

4On Target4

3Off Target5

3Blocked5

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

448Total Passes339

349Accurate Passes246

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides5