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Stockay-Warfusée vs Rochefort — League #487 2026

Stockay-Warfusée
Stockay-Warfusée
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rochefort
Rochefort
N. Gosselain 49', 42'
J. Libert 45'
1/25/2026League #487League #487 · ACFF - 20Terrain rue Joseph Wauters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stockay-Warfusée45%
×Draw24%
Rochefort31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockay-Warfusée
1.66
Rochefort
1.32

Stockay-Warfusée creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Stockay-Warfusée
0.91
Rochefort
1.00

allows per match

Stockay-Warfusée
1.64
Rochefort
2.40

finishing

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par
Rochefort+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockay-Warfusée ↓

Rochefort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stockay-Warfusée or draw
69%
Stockay-Warfusée or Rochefort
76%
Draw or Rochefort
55%

Winning margin

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+
24%
Rochefort wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals
81%
Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals
49%
Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals
23%
Rochefort 1+ goals
73%
Rochefort 2+ goals
38%
Rochefort 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)
60%
Rochefort (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockay-Warfusée at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Rochefort away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockay-Warfusée attack 0.91 + Rochefort defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.66

Rochefort attack 1.00 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stockay-Warfusée scores more
45%
level
24%
Rochefort scores more
31%

Stockay-Warfusée at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stockay-Warfusée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
N. Gosselain
45'
J. Libert
49'
N. Gosselain
90'
I. Bouhlal
Stockay-Warfusée
Rochefort
S. Demets
Manager: S. Demets
J. Rentmeister
Manager: J. Rentmeister

Match Recap: Stockay-Warfusée vs Rochefort

Rochefort beat Stockay-Warfusée 3-0 in League #487 on January 25, 2026.

Goals: N. Gosselain (42', 49'), J. Libert (45').

The match was played at Terrain rue Joseph Wauters in Saint-Georges-sur-Meuse.