Stockay-Warfusée 1–1 Rochefort: Result & Stats

Stockay-Warfusée

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rochefort

Q. Bakija 22' (pen)

G. Perseo 56'

4/13/2025

League #487 · ACFF - Promotion Round - 7Terrain rue Joseph Wauters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stockay-Warfusée49%

×Draw24%

Rochefort27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockay-WarfuséeExpected goals in this matchRochefort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.17

Stockay-Warfusée

1.67

Rochefort

1.17

Stockay-Warfusée creates 43% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Stockay-Warfusée

1.17

Rochefort

1.00

allows per match

Stockay-Warfusée

1.33

Rochefort

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Rochefort+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockay-Warfusée ↓

Rochefort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stockay-Warfusée or draw

73%

Stockay-Warfusée or Rochefort

76%

Draw or Rochefort

51%

Winning margin

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+

26%

Rochefort wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals

81%

Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals

50%

Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals

23%

Rochefort 1+ goals

69%

Rochefort 2+ goals

33%

Rochefort 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)

65%

Rochefort (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockay-Warfusée at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Rochefort away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.17 + Rochefort defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rochefort attack 1.00 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stockay-Warfusée scores more

49%

level

24%

Rochefort scores more

27%

Stockay-Warfusée at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stockay-Warfusée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Moriconi

20'

B. Boudry← Chen Shihan

22'

Q. BakijaPenalty

46'

T. Panepinto← Z. Nadrani

46'

S. Sylla← G. Thiry

56'

G. Perseo

81'

G. Smal← C. Uhía

84'

G. Kenmoe← A. Belhadj

86'

M. Renquin← G. Perseo

Stockay-Warfusée

Rochefort

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Demets

46'▲T. Panepinto←▼Z. Nadrani

46'▲S. Sylla←▼G. Thiry

84'▲G. Kenmoe←▼A. Belhadj

Stockay-Warfusée substitutes

PanepintoSyllaKenmoe

Manager: J. Rentmeister

20'▲B. Boudry←▼Chen Shihan

81'▲G. Smal←▼C. Uhía

86'▲M. Renquin←▼G. Perseo

Rochefort substitutes

BoudrySmalRenquin

League #487: Stockay-Warfusée 1–1 Rochefort

Stockay-Warfusée and Rochefort drew 1-1 in League #487 on April 13, 2025.

Goals: Q. Bakija (22' pen), G. Perseo (56').

The match was played at Terrain rue Joseph Wauters in Saint-Georges-sur-Meuse.

Stockay-Warfusée vs Rochefort — League #487 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #487: Stockay-Warfusée 1–1 Rochefort