Rochefort 0–0 Stockay-Warfusée: Result & Stats

Rochefort

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stockay-Warfusée

11/30/2024

League #487 · ACFF - 15Parc des Roches

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rochefort36%

×Draw26%

Stockay-Warfusée38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochefortExpected goals in this matchStockay-Warfusée

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.33

Rochefort

1.28

Stockay-Warfusée

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.56

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Rochefort

1.00

Stockay-Warfusée

1.11

allows per match

Rochefort

1.56

Stockay-Warfusée

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochefort+0.00on par

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochefort ↓

Stockay-Warfusée →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rochefort or draw

62%

Rochefort or Stockay-Warfusée

74%

Draw or Stockay-Warfusée

64%

Winning margin

Rochefort wins by 2+

16%

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Rochefort 1+ goals

72%

Rochefort 2+ goals

37%

Rochefort 3+ goals

14%

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals

74%

Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals

38%

Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rochefort (draw refunded)

48%

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochefort at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Stockay-Warfusée away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochefort attack 1.00 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.11 + Rochefort defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rochefort scores more

36%

level

26%

Stockay-Warfusée scores more

38%

Stockay-Warfusée at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stockay-Warfusée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Dani← Q. Ronvaux

70'

G. Smal← G. Perseo

78'

S. Sylla← Z. Nadrani

84'

M. Wilmots← N. Janelas

Rochefort

Stockay-Warfusée

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Rentmeister

70'▲G. Smal←▼G. Perseo

84'▲M. Wilmots←▼N. Janelas

Rochefort substitutes

SmalWilmots

Manager: S. Demets

43'▲Dani←▼Q. Ronvaux

78'▲S. Sylla←▼Z. Nadrani

Stockay-Warfusée substitutes

DaniSylla