Stjørdals-Blink 5–0 Kvik Halden: Result & Stats

Stjørdals-Blink

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kvik Halden

11/4/2023

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25MUS Stadion Sandskogan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stjørdals-Blink58%

×Draw21%

Kvik Halden21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stjørdals-BlinkExpected goals in this matchKvik Halden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.19

Stjørdals-Blink

2.08

Kvik Halden

1.19

Stjørdals-Blink creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

2.07

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Stjørdals-Blink

2.07

Kvik Halden

1.00

allows per match

Stjørdals-Blink

1.38

Kvik Halden

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjørdals-Blink+0.00on par

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjørdals-Blink ↓

Kvik Halden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stjørdals-Blink or draw

79%

Stjørdals-Blink or Kvik Halden

79%

Draw or Kvik Halden

42%

Winning margin

Stjørdals-Blink wins by 2+

35%

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stjørdals-Blink 1+ goals

87%

Stjørdals-Blink 2+ goals

61%

Stjørdals-Blink 3+ goals

34%

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

70%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

33%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stjørdals-Blink (draw refunded)

73%

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjørdals-Blink at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

Kvik Halden away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjørdals-Blink attack 2.07 + Kvik Halden defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kvik Halden attack 1.00 + Stjørdals-Blink defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stjørdals-Blink scores more

58%

level

21%

Kvik Halden scores more

21%

Stjørdals-Blink at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stjørdals-Blink will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff