Stjørdals-Blink 3–1 Kvik Halden: Result & Stats

Stjørdals-Blink

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kvik Halden

7/6/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 13Nye Blinkbanen (Stjørdal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stjørdals-Blink64%

×Draw18%

Kvik Halden18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stjørdals-BlinkExpected goals in this matchKvik Halden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.24

Stjørdals-Blink

2.50

Kvik Halden

1.24

Stjørdals-Blink creates 102% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 65 away

2.92

creates per match

1.71

0.77

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Stjørdals-Blink

2.92

Kvik Halden

1.71

allows per match

Stjørdals-Blink

0.77

Kvik Halden

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjørdals-Blink+0.00on par

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjørdals-Blink ↓

Kvik Halden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Stjørdals-Blink or draw

82%

Stjørdals-Blink or Kvik Halden

82%

Draw or Kvik Halden

36%

Winning margin

Stjørdals-Blink wins by 2+

43%

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stjørdals-Blink 1+ goals

92%

Stjørdals-Blink 2+ goals

71%

Stjørdals-Blink 3+ goals

45%

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

71%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

35%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stjørdals-Blink (draw refunded)

79%

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjørdals-Blink at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Kvik Halden away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.09 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjørdals-Blink attack 2.92 + Kvik Halden defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kvik Halden attack 1.71 + Stjørdals-Blink defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stjørdals-Blink scores more

64%

level

18%

Kvik Halden scores more

18%

Stjørdals-Blink at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Stjørdals-Blink will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff