Kvik Halden 1–3 Stjørdals-Blink: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Stjørdals-Blink

4/16/2023

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kvik Halden44%

×Draw21%

Stjørdals-Blink35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchStjørdals-Blink

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.83

Kvik Halden

2.08

Stjørdals-Blink

1.83

Kvik Halden creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 45 away

2.31

creates per match

1.80

1.85

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Kvik Halden

2.31

Stjørdals-Blink

1.80

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.85

Stjørdals-Blink

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Stjørdals-Blink+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Stjørdals-Blink →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

65%

Kvik Halden or Stjørdals-Blink

79%

Draw or Stjørdals-Blink

56%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

25%

Stjørdals-Blink wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

87%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

61%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

34%

Stjørdals-Blink 1+ goals

84%

Stjørdals-Blink 2+ goals

54%

Stjørdals-Blink 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

56%

Stjørdals-Blink (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Stjørdals-Blink away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 2.31 + Stjørdals-Blink defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.08

Stjørdals-Blink attack 1.80 + Kvik Halden defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

44%

level

21%

Stjørdals-Blink scores more

35%

Kvik Halden at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff