Stirling Albion 2–1 Stenhousemuir: Result & Stats

Stirling Albion

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stenhousemuir

7/22/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Stirling Albion44%

×Draw23%

Stenhousemuir34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling AlbionExpected goals in this matchStenhousemuir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.55

Stirling Albion

1.79

Stenhousemuir

1.55

Stirling Albion creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

0.93

creates per match

0.71

2.40

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Stirling Albion

0.93

Stenhousemuir

0.71

allows per match

Stirling Albion

2.40

Stenhousemuir

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Stenhousemuir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw

66%

Stirling Albion or Stenhousemuir

77%

Draw or Stenhousemuir

56%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

23%

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

83%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

53%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

26%

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

79%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

46%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

56%

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.93 + Stenhousemuir defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Stenhousemuir attack 0.71 + Stirling Albion defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stirling Albion scores more

44%

level

23%

Stenhousemuir scores more

34%

Stirling Albion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff