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Stirling Albion vs Stenhousemuir — League Two 2018

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
8/13/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Stirling Albion37%
×Draw26%
Stenhousemuir36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 78 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.28

allows per match

Stirling Albion
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.33

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Stenhousemuir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
64%
Stirling Albion or Stenhousemuir
74%
Draw or Stenhousemuir
63%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
17%
Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
74%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
38%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
15%
Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
73%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
38%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
51%
Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 116 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 1.33 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stenhousemuir attack 1.28 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
37%
level
26%
Stenhousemuir scores more
36%

Stirling Albion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling Albion vs Stenhousemuir

Stirling Albion beat Stenhousemuir 3-0 in League Two on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.