Stenhousemuir 1–3 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Stenhousemuir

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Stirling Albion

10/15/2022

League Two · Round 11Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Stenhousemuir35%

×Draw26%

Stirling Albion39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StenhousemuirExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.40

Stenhousemuir

1.31

Stirling Albion

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 117 away

1.31

creates per match

1.40

1.39

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Stenhousemuir

1.31

Stirling Albion

1.40

allows per match

Stenhousemuir

1.39

Stirling Albion

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw

61%

Stenhousemuir or Stirling Albion

74%

Draw or Stirling Albion

65%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+

15%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals

73%

Stenhousemuir 2+ goals

38%

Stenhousemuir 3+ goals

14%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

75%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

41%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)

47%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.32 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.31 + Stirling Albion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stirling Albion attack 1.40 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more

35%

level

26%

Stirling Albion scores more

39%

Stirling Albion at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff