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Stevenage vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
1/16/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 24The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage46%
×Draw27%
Tranmere27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.39
Tranmere
1.00

Stevenage creates 39% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 144 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
73%
Stevenage or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
54%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
22%
Tranmere wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
75%
Stevenage 2+ goals
40%
Stevenage 3+ goals
16%
Tranmere 1+ goals
63%
Tranmere 2+ goals
26%
Tranmere 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
63%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stevenage scores more
46%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
27%

Stevenage at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. CummingStevenageStevenage · G
7.7

Match Events

46'
M. Stevens← E. List
56'
L. Feeney← K. Woolery
65'
Jay Spearing
69'
D. Lloyd← O. Banks
77'
J. Smith← A. Read
77'
D. Newton← L. Norris
78'
J. Aitchison← T. Marsh
78'
C. Taylor← M. Ferrier
90'
James Vaughan

Possession

45%Stevenage

Shots

17Stevenage

Pass accuracy

49%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageTranmere
Overview
45%Possession55%
17Total Shots9
7Corners3
13Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots9
2On Target3
8Off Target3
7Blocked3
11Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
364Total Passes449
248Accurate Passes315
68%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Tranmere

Stevenage and Tranmere drew 0-0 in League Two on January 16, 2021.

Tranmere controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.