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Stevenage vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
CANC
00:00
Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
3/28/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 41The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Stevenage53%
×Draw25%
Scunthorpe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.59
Scunthorpe
0.94

Stevenage creates 69% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 64 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Scunthorpe
0.83

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Scunthorpe
1.88

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Scunthorpe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
78%
Stevenage or Scunthorpe
75%
Draw or Scunthorpe
47%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
28%
Scunthorpe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
80%
Stevenage 2+ goals
47%
Stevenage 3+ goals
21%
Scunthorpe 1+ goals
61%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
24%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
70%
Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.59

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stevenage scores more
53%
level
25%
Scunthorpe scores more
22%

Stevenage at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stevenage vs Scunthorpe — Match Preview

Stevenage face Scunthorpe on March 28, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stevenage host Scunthorpe at The Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.