Scunthorpe 0–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

E. List 59'

5/8/2021

League Two · Round 46Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe35%

×Draw30%

Stevenage36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.08

Scunthorpe

1.06

Stevenage

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 100 away

0.89

creates per match

0.80

1.35

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

64%

Scunthorpe or Stevenage

70%

Draw or Stevenage

65%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

14%

Stevenage wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

65%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

29%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

9%

Stevenage 1+ goals

66%

Stevenage 2+ goals

29%

Stevenage 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

49%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

35%

level

30%

Stevenage scores more

36%

Stevenage at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Cumming

Stevenage · G

7.3

Match Events

11'

31'

43'

46'

59'

69'

69'

72'

R. Vincelot← J. Smith

72'

74'

83'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeStevenage

Overview

52%Possession48%

5Total Shots8

2Corners5

11Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots8

2On Target2

3Off Target3

0Blocked3

2Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

242Total Passes216

184Accurate Passes156

76%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1