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Scunthorpe vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
H. Bunn 75'
J. Reid 53'
4/18/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 43Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe35%
×Draw30%
Stevenage36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.06
Stevenage
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 100 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
64%
Scunthorpe or Stevenage
70%
Draw or Stevenage
65%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
14%
Stevenage wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
65%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
29%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
9%
Stevenage 1+ goals
66%
Stevenage 2+ goals
29%
Stevenage 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
49%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
35%
level
30%
Stevenage scores more
36%

Stevenage at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
R. WatsonScunthorpeScunthorpe · G
8.5

Match Events

12'
Jai Rowe
47'
Ryan Delaney
53'
J. Reid↳ C. Lines
65'
J. Hallam← J. Nuttall
66'
H. Bunn← C. Wilson
75'
H. Bunn↳ J. Hallam
87'
H. Lewis← A. Beestin
90'
J. Daly← E. List

Possession

54%Scunthorpe

Shots

9Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

52%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeStevenage
Overview
54%Possession46%
9Total Shots23
3Corners5
12Fouls6
Shots
9Total Shots23
1On Target9
4Off Target7
4Blocked7
5Inside Box16
4Outside Box7
Passing
54%Possession46%
373Total Passes312
227Accurate Passes176
61%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
8Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls6
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 1–1 Stevenage

Scunthorpe and Stevenage drew 1-1 in League Two on April 18, 2022.

Goals: J. Reid (53'), H. Bunn (75').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 23.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.