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Stevenage vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
12/10/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 21The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage38%
×Draw28%
Mansfield Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.23
Mansfield Town
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 141 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Mansfield Town
1.25

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Mansfield Town
1.16

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
66%
Stevenage or Mansfield Town
72%
Draw or Mansfield Town
62%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
16%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
71%
Stevenage 2+ goals
35%
Stevenage 3+ goals
13%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
68%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
32%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
53%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stevenage scores more
38%
level
28%
Mansfield Town scores more
34%

Stevenage at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
S. EarleyStevenageStevenage · D
7.9

Match Events

29'
Carl Piergianni
60'
H. Boateng← S. Quinn
73'
D. Rose← J. Reid
73'
J. Taylor← D. Campbell
73'
A. Read← A. Gilbey
89'
K. Wallace← O. Clarke

Possession

50%Stevenage

Shots

7Stevenage

Pass accuracy

51%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageMansfield
Overview
50%Possession50%
7Total Shots5
3Corners2
9Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots5
1On Target2
3Off Target2
3Blocked1
4Inside Box3
3Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
362Total Passes367
228Accurate Passes221
63%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town

Stevenage and Mansfield Town drew 0-0 in League Two on December 10, 2022.

Stevenage controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.