Mansfield Town 1–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

J. Gardner 73'

C. Goode 70'

9/13/2025

League One · Round 8One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mansfield Town46%

×Draw23%

Stevenage31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.43

Mansfield Town

1.77

Stevenage

1.43

Mansfield Town creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.77

creates per match

1.01

1.84

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

Stevenage

1.77

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

69%

Mansfield Town or Stevenage

77%

Draw or Stevenage

54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

24%

Stevenage wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

83%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

53%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

26%

Stevenage 1+ goals

76%

Stevenage 2+ goals

42%

Stevenage 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

59%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

46%

level

23%

Stevenage scores more

31%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Gardner

Mansfield Town · F

7.7

Match Events

31'

Frazer Blake-Tracy

45+2'

Lewis Freestone

46'

S. McLaughlin← F. Blake-Tracy

46'

J. Gardner← G. Maris

61'

A. Lewis← T. Roberts

62'

D. Butler← L. Freestone

66'

Nathan Moriah-Welsh

70'

C. Goode↳ H. White

73'

J. Gardner↳ L. Roberts

74'

G. Ahadme← J. Reid

74'

C. Campbell← P. Patterson

74'

B. Lubala← J. Roberts

75'

Beryly Lubala

79'

Harvey White

83'

D. Phillips← H. White

90'

Carl Piergianni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldStevenage

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots9

3Corners9

8Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots9

2On Target4

3Off Target5

2Blocked0

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

363Total Passes362

251Accurate Passes242

69%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2