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Mansfield Town vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
4/22/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 44One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Mansfield Town46%
×Draw27%
Stevenage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mansfield Town
1.42
Stevenage
1.01

Mansfield Town creates 41% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 100 away

creates per match

Mansfield Town
1.60
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Mansfield Town
1.22
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw
73%
Mansfield Town or Stevenage
73%
Draw or Stevenage
54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+
23%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals
76%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
41%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
17%
Stevenage 1+ goals
64%
Stevenage 2+ goals
27%
Stevenage 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
63%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.60 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Mansfield Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more
46%
level
27%
Stevenage scores more
27%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Mansfield Town 1–0 Stevenage

Mansfield Town beat Stevenage 1-0 in League Two on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at One Call Stadium in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire.