Mansfield Town 0–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stevenage

J. Young 32'

10/19/2024

League One · Round 12One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mansfield Town46%

×Draw23%

Stevenage31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.43

Mansfield Town

1.77

Stevenage

1.43

Mansfield Town creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.77

creates per match

1.01

1.84

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.77

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.84

Stevenage

1.77

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Mansfield Town-0.04on par

Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

69%

Mansfield Town or Stevenage

77%

Draw or Stevenage

54%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

24%

Stevenage wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

83%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

53%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

26%

Stevenage 1+ goals

76%

Stevenage 2+ goals

42%

Stevenage 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

59%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.77 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Mansfield Town defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

46%

level

23%

Stevenage scores more

31%

Mansfield Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

K. Smith

Stevenage · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

Baily Cargill

32'

J. Young

46'

F. Blake-Tracy← B. Cargill

64'

Louis Reed

66'

Luther James-Wildin

67'

K. Baccus← S. Quinn

68'

A. Lewis← G. Williams

68'

E. List← J. Young

83'

A. Pressley← J. Reid

84'

H. White← E. King

84'

D. Kemp← J. Roberts

86'

B. Waine← E. Hewitt

86'

J. Bowery← W. Evans

90+6'

D. Butler← L. Thompson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldStevenage

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots10

9Corners2

5Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots10

3On Target6

1Off Target0

11Blocked4

12Inside Box3

3Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

536Total Passes407

414Accurate Passes282

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0