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Stevenage vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
Preview
14:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
4/17/2027League OneLeague One · Round 42Lamex Stadium
Big match
51%
Stevenage
model favours
51%26%23%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stevenage51%
×Draw26%
Leyton Orient23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.53
Leyton Orient
0.93

Stevenage creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.28
Leyton Orient
1.07

allows per match

Stevenage
0.78
Leyton Orient
1.78

finishing

Stevenage-0.28scores less
Leyton Orient-0.18scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
77%
Stevenage or Leyton Orient
74%
Draw or Leyton Orient
49%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
26%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
78%
Stevenage 2+ goals
45%
Stevenage 3+ goals
20%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
61%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
24%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
69%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 7 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.28 + Leyton Orient defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.53

Leyton Orient attack 1.07 + Stevenage defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stevenage scores more
51%
level
26%
Leyton Orient scores more
23%

Stevenage at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Stevenage sit 6, Leyton Orient 20 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
Leyton Orient
Balanced
44%PossessionBiggest gap52%
63%Pass accuracy71%
10.5Shots11.2
1.14xG1.07
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StevenageLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Stevenage
4
Draws
3
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 30%
1–23–20–10–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Stevenage
LDLLW
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stevenage face Leyton Orient (League One)

League One returns with Stevenage hosting Leyton Orient. Match starts April 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stevenage host Leyton Orient at Lamex Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.