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Stevenage vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
3/16/2024League OneLeague One · Round 39The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Stevenage41%
×Draw28%
Leyton Orient31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.29
Leyton Orient
1.08

Stevenage creates 19% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.17
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Stevenage
0.84
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
69%
Stevenage or Leyton Orient
72%
Draw or Leyton Orient
59%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
19%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
72%
Stevenage 2+ goals
37%
Stevenage 3+ goals
14%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
66%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
29%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
57%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.17 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Stevenage defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stevenage scores more
41%
level
28%
Leyton Orient scores more
31%

Stevenage at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Stevenage 1-0 in League One on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.