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Leyton Orient vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
9/27/2025League OneLeague One · Round 10Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Leyton Orient42%
×Draw28%
Stevenage30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.27
Stevenage
1.04

Leyton Orient creates 22% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.31
Stevenage
0.94

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.15
Stevenage
1.23

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
70%
Leyton Orient or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
58%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
19%
Stevenage wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
72%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
36%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
14%
Stevenage 1+ goals
65%
Stevenage 2+ goals
28%
Stevenage 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
58%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 71 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.31 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Leyton Orient defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
42%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
30%

Leyton Orient at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Stevenage

Stevenage beat Leyton Orient 3-2 in League One on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.