Leyton Orient 1–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

C. Kelman 12'

3/27/2025

League One · Round 39Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Leyton Orient42%

×Draw28%

Stevenage30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.04

Leyton Orient

1.27

Stevenage

1.04

Leyton Orient creates 22% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

1.15

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Stevenage

0.94

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.15

Stevenage

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

70%

Leyton Orient or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

58%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

19%

Stevenage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

72%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

36%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

14%

Stevenage 1+ goals

65%

Stevenage 2+ goals

28%

Stevenage 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

58%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 71 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.31 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Leyton Orient defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

42%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

30%

Leyton Orient at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

S. Clare

Leyton Orient · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

C. Kelman↳ S. Clare

63'

D. Ball← J. Brown

65'

E. List← B. Hanlan

70'

O. O'Neill← D. Jaiyesimi

70'

J. Donley← D. Markanday

79'

A. Abdulai← C. Kelman

79'

S. Perkins← D. Agyei

80'

H. White← E. King

81'

J. Young← J. Reid

81'

L. Appéré← J. Roberts

90+2'

D. Sweeney← L. Thompson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonStevenage

Overview

50%Possession50%

3Total Shots11

5Corners4

11Fouls6

Shots

3Total Shots11

1On Target3

0Off Target4

2Blocked4

1Inside Box9

2Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

328Total Passes322

212Accurate Passes208

65%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls6

2Offsides0