Stevenage 0–3 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Leyton Orient

R. Sotiriou 62', 19'

O. Cissé 59'

2/1/2020

League Two · Round 31The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage40%

×Draw28%

Leyton Orient32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.10

Stevenage

1.25

Leyton Orient

1.10

Stevenage creates 14% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 94 away

1.31

creates per match

1.17

1.04

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

68%

Stevenage or Leyton Orient

72%

Draw or Leyton Orient

60%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

17%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

71%

Stevenage 2+ goals

36%

Stevenage 3+ goals

13%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

67%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

30%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

55%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stevenage scores more

40%

level

28%

Leyton Orient scores more

32%

Stevenage at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

R. Sotiriou

Leyton Orient · F

8.3

Match Events

19'

R. Sotiriou↳ J. Wright

33'

47'

58'

59'

60'

D. Kemp← D. Parkhouse

62'

R. Sotiriou↳ C. Wilkinson

67'

Jake Cassidy

68'

J. Leesley← T. Vancooten

72'

D. Johnson← J. Maguire-Drew

74'

S. Jackson← S. Cuthbert

79'

L. Angol← R. Sotiriou

82'

H. Kyprianou← C. Clay

90'

Conor Wilkinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageLeyton

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots9

4Corners6

24Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots9

5On Target5

2Off Target2

1Blocked2

2Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

353Total Passes367

208Accurate Passes204

59%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

24Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

League Two: Stevenage 0–3 Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Stevenage 3-0 in League Two on February 1, 2020.

Goals: R. Sotiriou (19', 62'), O. Cissé (59').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.

Stevenage vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Stevenage 0–3 Leyton Orient