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Stevenage vs Hartlepool — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
E. List 46'
J. Reid 21'
10/2/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 10The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Stevenage49%
×Draw26%
Hartlepool26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.54
Hartlepool
1.04

Stevenage creates 48% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 81 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Hartlepool
1.05

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Hartlepool
1.78

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Hartlepool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
74%
Stevenage or Hartlepool
74%
Draw or Hartlepool
51%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
25%
Hartlepool wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
79%
Stevenage 2+ goals
45%
Stevenage 3+ goals
20%
Hartlepool 1+ goals
65%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
28%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
66%
Hartlepool (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stevenage scores more
49%
level
26%
Hartlepool scores more
26%

Stevenage at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
N. FeatherstoneHartlepoolHartlepool · M
7.9

Match Events

21'
J. Reid↳ J. Reeves
44'
Jake Taylor
46'
E. List↳ E. Osborne
53'
M. Cullen← M. Fondop-Talum
53'
W. Goodwin← M. Shelton
58'
Terence Vancooten
64'
J. Smith← Bruno Andrade
76'
J. Cook← Z. Francis-Angol
78'
L. Norris← E. List
90+2'
L. Prosser← J. Reid

Possession

34%Stevenage

Shots

10Stevenage

Pass accuracy

44%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageHartlepool
Overview
34%Possession66%
10Total Shots18
3Corners5
11Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots18
6On Target4
2Off Target6
2Blocked8
9Inside Box8
1Outside Box10
Passing
34%Possession66%
297Total Passes580
184Accurate Passes461
62%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0
6Offsides3

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Hartlepool

Stevenage beat Hartlepool 2-0 in League Two on October 2, 2021.

Goals: J. Reid (21'), E. List (46').

Hartlepool controlled possession (66%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.