Hartlepool 1–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stevenage

N. Featherstone 46'

D. Rose 25'

4/10/2023

League Two · Round 41The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool40%

×Draw28%

Stevenage32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.05

Hartlepool

1.22

Stevenage

1.05

Hartlepool creates 16% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 100 away

1.20

creates per match

0.80

1.30

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.20

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.30

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

68%

Hartlepool or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

60%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

17%

Stevenage wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

70%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

34%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

12%

Stevenage 1+ goals

65%

Stevenage 2+ goals

28%

Stevenage 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

56%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hartlepool scores more

40%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

32%

Hartlepool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

L. James-Wildin

Stevenage · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

D. Rose↳ L. James-Wildin

28'

Euan Murray

36'

M. Sylla← T. Foran

43'

Terence Vancooten

46'

N. Featherstone↳ D. Kemp

54'

J. Taylor← T. Vancooten

57'

Alex Gilbey

69'

W. McDonald← N. Featherstone

74'

J. Forster-Caskey← M. Bostwick

83'

83'

89'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HartlepoolStevenage

Overview

60%Possession40%

6Total Shots16

4Corners6

10Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots16

2On Target4

1Off Target7

3Blocked5

4Inside Box12

2Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

374Total Passes246

245Accurate Passes126

66%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides4