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Hartlepool vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
N. Featherstone 77'
L. Norris 70' (pen)
1/22/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 28The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool40%
×Draw28%
Stevenage32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.22
Stevenage
1.05

Hartlepool creates 16% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 100 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
68%
Hartlepool or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
60%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
17%
Stevenage wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
70%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
34%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
12%
Stevenage 1+ goals
65%
Stevenage 2+ goals
28%
Stevenage 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
56%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hartlepool scores more
40%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
32%

Hartlepool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
D. FergusonHartlepoolHartlepool · D
7.9

Match Events

61'
J. Grey← G. Holohan
64'
J. Reid← Z. Westbrooke
70'
L. NorrisPenalty
73'
O. Olomola← G. Liddle
77'
N. Featherstone↳ J. Grey
79'
E. Upson← S. Cuthbert
84'
C. Carter← L. Norris
90+2'
Luke Molyneux
90'
T. Crawford← M. Shelton

Possession

58%Hartlepool

Shots

14Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

53%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolStevenage
Overview
58%Possession42%
14Total Shots9
5Corners3
7Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots9
4On Target2
6Off Target3
4Blocked4
5Inside Box6
9Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
554Total Passes403
384Accurate Passes246
69%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Stevenage

Hartlepool and Stevenage drew 1-1 in League Two on January 22, 2022.

Goals: L. Norris (70' pen), N. Featherstone (77').

Hartlepool controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Suit Direct Stadium in Hartlepool, County Durham.