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Stevenage vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Forest Green
Forest Green
J. Young 81'
J. Matt 58'
M. Stevens 50'
K. Wilson 2'
9/18/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 8The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Stevenage39%
×Draw27%
Forest Green34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.29
Forest Green
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 90 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Forest Green
1.36

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Forest Green
1.26

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
66%
Stevenage or Forest Green
73%
Draw or Forest Green
61%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
17%
Forest Green wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
72%
Stevenage 2+ goals
37%
Stevenage 3+ goals
14%
Forest Green 1+ goals
70%
Forest Green 2+ goals
34%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
53%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stevenage scores more
39%
level
27%
Forest Green scores more
34%

Stevenage at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
N. CaddenForest GreenForest Green · M
8.9

Match Events

2'
K. Wilson
23'
L. Prosser← S. Cuthbert
43'
Dan Sweeney
45+1'
Regan Hendry
50'
M. Stevens
53'
Jake Reeves
54'
Luke McGee
58'
J. Matt↳ N. Cadden
59'
Ben Coker
61'
E. Adams← J. Aitchison
66'
J. Reid← E. List
71'
Ben Stevenson
72'
J. Young← M. Stevens
79'
B. Barry← J. Daly
80'
S. Diallo← R. Hendry
81'
J. Young↳ J. Matt

Possession

46%Stevenage

Shots

15Stevenage

Pass accuracy

49%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageForest
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots18
7Corners4
12Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots18
2On Target6
8Off Target9
5Blocked3
4Inside Box17
11Outside Box1
Passing
46%Possession54%
339Total Passes410
249Accurate Passes311
73%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Forest Green

Forest Green beat Stevenage 4-0 in League Two on September 18, 2021.

Goals: K. Wilson (2'), M. Stevens (50'), J. Matt (58'), J. Young (81').

Forest Green controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.