Forest Green 1–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

J. Young 23'

10/17/2020

League Two · Round 6The innocent New Lawn Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green41%

×Draw29%

Stevenage30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.01

Forest Green

1.22

Stevenage

1.01

Forest Green creates 21% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 100 away

1.20

creates per match

0.80

1.22

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

70%

Forest Green or Stevenage

71%

Draw or Stevenage

59%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

18%

Stevenage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

70%

Forest Green 2+ goals

34%

Forest Green 3+ goals

12%

Stevenage 1+ goals

64%

Stevenage 2+ goals

27%

Stevenage 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

57%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Forest Green scores more

41%

level

29%

Stevenage scores more

30%

Forest Green at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

E. Whitehouse

Forest Green · M

7.5

Match Events

23'

45'

49'

67'

67'

72'

D. Bernard← J. Richardson

73'

J. March← J. Young

82'

Arthur Read

83'

D. Newton← J. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestStevenage

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots2

2Corners4

8Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots2

2On Target1

3Off Target1

2Blocked0

4Inside Box0

3Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

352Total Passes367

251Accurate Passes263

71%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1