Stevenage 0–0 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Forest Green

12/26/2019

League Two · Round 23The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Stevenage39%

×Draw27%

Forest Green34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.20

Stevenage

1.29

Forest Green

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 90 away

1.31

creates per match

1.36

1.04

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Forest Green

1.36

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Forest Green

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

66%

Stevenage or Forest Green

73%

Draw or Forest Green

61%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

17%

Forest Green wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

72%

Stevenage 2+ goals

37%

Stevenage 3+ goals

14%

Forest Green 1+ goals

70%

Forest Green 2+ goals

34%

Forest Green 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

53%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stevenage scores more

39%

level

27%

Forest Green scores more

34%

Stevenage at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Farman

Stevenage · G

7.5

Match Events

33'

Jason Cowley

46'

F. Rawson← U. Godwin-Malife

58'

C. Mackail-Smith← C. Carter

60'

M. Stevens← J. Morton

60'

A. Collins← E. Frear

88'

P. Taylor← E. List

90+1'

K. Guthrie← J. Cowley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageForest

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots7

9Corners4

18Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots7

1On Target2

5Off Target3

5Blocked2

6Inside Box2

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

316Total Passes396

205Accurate Passes264

65%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides3