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Stevenage vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Crewe
Crewe
S. Cuthbert 84'
S. Cuthbert 70' (OG)
C. Anene 65', 29'
D. Powell 57'
O. Finney 32'
12/21/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 22The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage42%
×Draw27%
Crewe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.34
Crewe
1.10

Stevenage creates 22% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 122 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Crewe
1.16

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Crewe
1.38

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
69%
Stevenage or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
58%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
19%
Crewe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
74%
Stevenage 2+ goals
39%
Stevenage 3+ goals
15%
Crewe 1+ goals
67%
Crewe 2+ goals
30%
Crewe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
58%
Crewe (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Crewe defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Crewe attack 1.16 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stevenage scores more
42%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
31%

Stevenage at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
H. PickeringCreweCrewe · D
8.4

Match Events

28'
Scott Cuthbert
29'
C. Anene↳ C. Kirk
32'
O. Finney↳ C. Kirk
57'
D. Powell↳ P. Ng
63'
C. Lakin← M. Timlin
63'
T. Soares← P. Taylor
64'
J. Cowley← C. Carter
65'
C. Anene↳ H. Pickering
69'
C. Ainley← O. Finney
69'
P. Green← T. Lowery
70'
S. CuthbertOwn goal
73'
O. Dale← D. Powell
84'
S. Cuthbert↳ B. Kennedy
90'
Emmanuel Sonupe

Possession

43%Stevenage

Shots

17Stevenage

Pass accuracy

48%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageCrewe
Overview
43%Possession57%
17Total Shots21
4Corners8
12Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots21
2On Target8
11Off Target9
4Blocked4
9Inside Box16
8Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
351Total Passes456
267Accurate Passes369
76%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls8
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Crewe

Crewe beat Stevenage 5-1 in League Two on December 21, 2019.

Goals: C. Anene (29', 65'), O. Finney (32'), D. Powell (57'), S. Cuthbert (70' o.g., 84').

Crewe controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 17.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.