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Crewe vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
R. McDonald 27'
J. Reid 67', 48'
9/3/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Crewe46%
×Draw27%
Stevenage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.40
Stevenage
0.99

Crewe creates 41% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 100 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.56
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Crewe
1.18
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
73%
Crewe or Stevenage
73%
Draw or Stevenage
54%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
22%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
75%
Crewe 2+ goals
41%
Crewe 3+ goals
17%
Stevenage 1+ goals
63%
Stevenage 2+ goals
26%
Stevenage 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
64%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crewe scores more
46%
level
27%
Stevenage scores more
27%

Crewe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. ReidStevenageStevenage · F
8.7

Match Events

27'
R. McDonald↳ T. Uwakwe
37'
Dan Sweeney
41'
Eli King
48'
J. Reid
62'
J. Roberts← A. Gilbey
67'
J. Reid
69'
C. Long← B. Sambou
76'
Conor Thomas
82'
Courtney Baker-Richardson
85'
Jake Reeves
90+4'
A. Read← L. Norris

Possession

54%Crewe

Shots

11Crewe

Pass accuracy

53%Crewe

Statistics

CreweStevenage
Overview
54%Possession46%
11Total Shots10
11Corners3
17Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots10
4On Target4
4Off Target5
3Blocked1
6Inside Box6
5Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
354Total Passes314
217Accurate Passes168
61%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Crewe vs Stevenage

Stevenage beat Crewe 2-1 in League Two on September 3, 2022.

Goals: R. McDonald (27'), J. Reid (48', 67').

Crewe controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.