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Crewe vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
R. Wintle 67'
C. Kirk 63'
C. Porter 15'
C. Carter 90'
3/7/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Crewe46%
×Draw27%
Stevenage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.40
Stevenage
0.99

Crewe creates 41% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 100 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.56
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Crewe
1.18
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
73%
Crewe or Stevenage
73%
Draw or Stevenage
54%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
22%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
75%
Crewe 2+ goals
41%
Crewe 3+ goals
17%
Stevenage 1+ goals
63%
Stevenage 2+ goals
26%
Stevenage 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
64%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.56 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Crewe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crewe scores more
46%
level
27%
Stevenage scores more
27%

Crewe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
R. WintleCreweCrewe · M
8.3

Match Events

15'
C. Porter↳ J. Jones
37'
C. Mackail-Smith← J. Cassidy
57'
Charlie Lakin
59'
B. Kennedy← D. Parrett
63'
C. Kirk↳ R. Wintle
67'
R. Wintle↳ H. Pickering
71'
C. Carroll← E. List
75'
Craig Mackail-Smith
77'
O. Dale← C. Kirk
78'
O. Finney← J. Jones
80'
C. Anene← C. Porter
90'
C. Carter↳ C. Mackail-Smith

Possession

64%Crewe

Shots

17Crewe

Pass accuracy

56%Crewe

Statistics

CreweStevenage
Overview
64%Possession36%
17Total Shots10
9Corners1
3Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots10
9On Target2
4Off Target4
4Blocked4
12Inside Box3
5Outside Box7
Passing
64%Possession36%
558Total Passes306
444Accurate Passes191
80%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
3Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

League Two: Crewe 3–1 Stevenage

Crewe beat Stevenage 3-1 in League Two on March 7, 2020.

Goals: C. Porter (15'), C. Kirk (63'), R. Wintle (67'), C. Carter (90').

Crewe controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.