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Stevenage vs Bolton — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
1/20/2026League OneLeague One · Round 16Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stevenage41%
×Draw27%
Bolton32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.33
Bolton
1.16

Stevenage creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.28
Bolton
1.54

allows per match

Stevenage
0.78
Bolton
1.39

finishing

Stevenage-0.28scores less
Bolton-0.36scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
68%
Stevenage or Bolton
73%
Draw or Bolton
59%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
19%
Bolton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
74%
Stevenage 2+ goals
38%
Stevenage 3+ goals
15%
Bolton 1+ goals
69%
Bolton 2+ goals
32%
Bolton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
56%
Bolton (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 7 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.28 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bolton attack 1.54 + Stevenage defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stevenage scores more
41%
level
27%
Bolton scores more
32%

Stevenage at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
C. GoodeStevenageStevenage · D
7.5

Match Events

58'
K. Dempsey← X. Simons
58'
J. McAtee← M. Burstow
68'
D. Kemp← L. Thompson
68'
C. Campbell← B. Lubala
73'
T. Gale← M. Conway
77'
H. Cornick← J. Reid
83'
George Johnston
88'
E. Erhahon← A. Cozier-Duberry

Possession

33%Stevenage

Shots

10Stevenage

Pass accuracy

42%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageBolton
Overview
33%Possession67%
10Total Shots6
6Corners4
18Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots6
3On Target4
1Off Target2
6Blocked1
8Inside Box3
2Outside Box3
Passing
33%Possession67%
205Total Passes427
119Accurate Passes343
58%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

League One: Stevenage 0–0 Bolton

Stevenage and Bolton drew 0-0 in League One on January 20, 2026.

Bolton controlled possession (67%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Lamex Stadium in Stevenage.