Bolton 5–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League One

Bolton

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stevenage

M. Burstow 81'

R. Rodrigues 67'

A. Cozier-Duberry 49', 13'

J. Kenny 30'

D. Kemp 64'

4/14/2026

League One · Round 40Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bolton51%

×Draw23%

Stevenage26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.23

Bolton

1.81

Stevenage

1.23

Bolton creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.84

creates per match

1.01

1.44

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Bolton

1.84

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Bolton

1.44

Stevenage

1.77

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Bolton+0.66scores more

Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

74%

Bolton or Stevenage

77%

Draw or Stevenage

49%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

28%

Stevenage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

84%

Bolton 2+ goals

54%

Bolton 3+ goals

27%

Stevenage 1+ goals

71%

Stevenage 2+ goals

35%

Stevenage 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

66%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.44 · 12 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.84 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Bolton defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bolton scores more

51%

level

23%

Stevenage scores more

26%

Bolton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Cozier-Duberry

Bolton · M

9.2

Match Events

13'

A. Cozier-Duberry↳ J. Osei-Tutu

30'

J. Kenny↳ T. Gale

39'

S. Earley← D. Sweeney

42'

Daniel Phillips

49'

A. Cozier-Duberry↳ S. Dalby

56'

R. Apter← A. Cozier-Duberry

56'

M. Burstow← S. Dalby

59'

M. Phillips← J. Reid

60'

J. Houghton← H. White

60'

B. Lubala← J. Roberts

64'

D. Kemp↳ J. Houghton

67'

R. Rodrigues↳ M. Burstow

68'

K. Dempsey← J. Kenny

68'

M. Conway← R. Rodrigues

74'

P. Patterson← D. Kemp

80'

I. Cissoko← T. Gale

81'

M. Burstow

90+2'

Saxon Earley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonStevenage

Overview

67%Possession33%

24Total Shots10

3.14Expected Goals (xG)1.29

8Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots10

9On Target3

12Off Target6

3Blocked1

12Inside Box7

12Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

547Total Passes276

488Accurate Passes196

89%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3