Stevenage 1–4 Bolton: Result & Stats | League One

Stevenage

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Bolton

D. Kemp 70'

D. Charles 88'

V. Adeboyejo 61'

J. McAtee 16'

Ricardo 13'

10/29/2024

League One · Round 11Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stevenage41%

×Draw27%

Bolton32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Stevenage

1.33

Bolton

1.16

Stevenage creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.28

creates per match

1.54

0.78

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Stevenage

1.28

Bolton

1.54

allows per match

Stevenage

0.78

Bolton

1.39

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Stevenage-0.28scores less

Bolton-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

68%

Stevenage or Bolton

73%

Draw or Bolton

59%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

19%

Bolton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

74%

Stevenage 2+ goals

38%

Stevenage 3+ goals

15%

Bolton 1+ goals

69%

Bolton 2+ goals

32%

Bolton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

56%

Bolton (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 7 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.28 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bolton attack 1.54 + Stevenage defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stevenage scores more

41%

level

27%

Bolton scores more

32%

Stevenage at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Ricardo

Bolton · D

8.3

Match Events

13'

Ricardo↳ J. Sheehan

16'

J. McAtee

31'

Josh Sheehan

31'

W. Forrester← E. Toal

59'

61'

67'

68'

68'

A. Pressley← J. Roberts

68'

H. White← D. Phillips

68'

L. Freestone← E. List

70'

D. Kemp

73'

Ricardo Santos

76'

D. Charles← V. Adeboyejo

77'

K. Lolos← J. McAtee

78'

Luke Southwood

80'

Luther James-Wildin

81'

R. Williams← S. Schön

81'

S. Arfield← A. Collins

84'

Dan Butler

88'

D. Charles↳ J. Dacres-Cogley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageBolton

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots12

10Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots12

5On Target6

2Off Target3

9Blocked3

12Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

356Total Passes350

265Accurate Passes249

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

League One: Stevenage 1–4 Bolton

Bolton beat Stevenage 4-1 in League One on October 29, 2024.

Goals: Ricardo (13'), J. McAtee (16'), V. Adeboyejo (61'), D. Kemp (70'), D. Charles (88').

Stevenage controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.

Stevenage vs Bolton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Stevenage 1–4 Bolton