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Stevenage vs Bolton — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Bolton
Bolton
T. Pett 44'
A. Crawford 36'
E. Doyle 14'
11/21/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 13The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Stevenage37%
×Draw27%
Bolton36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.24
Bolton
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Bolton
1.39

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Bolton
1.17

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
64%
Stevenage or Bolton
73%
Draw or Bolton
63%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
16%
Bolton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
71%
Stevenage 2+ goals
35%
Stevenage 3+ goals
13%
Bolton 1+ goals
70%
Bolton 2+ goals
34%
Bolton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
51%
Bolton (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Bolton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bolton attack 1.39 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stevenage scores more
37%
level
27%
Bolton scores more
36%

Stevenage at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
T. PettStevenageStevenage · F
7.7

Match Events

14'
E. Doyle
36'
A. Crawford↳ G. Jones
44'
T. Pett↳ A. Oteh
46'
D. Newton← J. Smith
54'
Andrew Tutte
58'
Arthur Iontton
63'
Tom Pett
65'
T. Marsh← C. Carter
76'
S. Miller← N. Delfouneso
78'
L. Isgrove← A. Crawford
81'
E. List← B. Coker
81'
O. Akinwande← A. Read
86'
Ryan Delaney
90'
Antoni Sarcevic

Possession

45%Stevenage

Shots

8Stevenage

Pass accuracy

50%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageBolton
Overview
45%Possession55%
8Total Shots10
6Corners2
16Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots10
3On Target7
4Off Target0
1Blocked3
4Inside Box9
4Outside Box1
Passing
45%Possession55%
354Total Passes441
236Accurate Passes301
67%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Bolton

Bolton beat Stevenage 2-1 in League Two on November 21, 2020.

Goals: E. Doyle (14'), A. Crawford (36'), T. Pett (44').

Bolton controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.