Start 0–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Start

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ODD Ballklubb

E. Rashani 3'

8/27/2018

Eliteserien · Round 20Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start51%

×Draw23%

ODD Ballklubb26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.20

Start

1.78

ODD Ballklubb

1.20

Start creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

0.98

1.42

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Start

1.33

ODD Ballklubb

0.98

allows per match

Start

1.42

ODD Ballklubb

2.22

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Start-0.33scores less

ODD Ballklubb+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Start or draw

74%

Start or ODD Ballklubb

77%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

49%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

28%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

83%

Start 2+ goals

53%

Start 3+ goals

26%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

70%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

34%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

66%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.78

ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Start scores more

51%

level

23%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

26%

Start at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Ruud

ODD Ballklubb · D

8.0

Match Events

3'

E. Rashani↳ M. Broberg

46'

46'

58'

69'

76'

Joshua Kitolano← M. Kaasa

77'

Adnan Hadzic

78'

I. Mensah← A. Akinyemi

90+5'

A. Nordvik← B. Njie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StartODD

Overview

62%Possession38%

11Total Shots8

13Corners2

19Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target4

7Off Target0

2Blocked4

5Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

480Total Passes302

393Accurate Passes196

82%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0