ODD Ballklubb 2–2 Start: Result & Stats

ODD Ballklubb

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Start

R. Zekhnini 72'

N. Kojo 49'

O. Jebali 43'

M. Grundetjern 20'

6/28/2025

1. Division · Round 13Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb39%

×Draw24%

Start37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ODD BallklubbExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.48

ODD Ballklubb

1.53

Start

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 77 away

1.57

creates per match

1.53

1.43

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.57

Start

1.53

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb

1.43

Start

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw

63%

ODD Ballklubb or Start

76%

Draw or Start

61%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

19%

Start wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

78%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

45%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

20%

Start 1+ goals

77%

Start 2+ goals

43%

Start 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

51%

Start (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Start away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.57 + Start defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.53

Start attack 1.53 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more

39%

level

24%

Start scores more

37%

ODD Ballklubb at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Hansen

20'

M. Grundetjern

38'

J. Baccay← J. Gunnerod

38'

S. Owusu← N. Walstad

43'

O. Jebali↳ M. Ugland

45+4'

D. Dashaev← T. Strannegard

49'

N. Kojo↳ O. Hagen

52'

E. Hussain

58'

B. Njie← O. Hagen

72'

R. Zekhnini↳ B. Njie

73'

E. Gono← M. Grundetjern

79'

S. Aas← N. Kojo

79'

S. Hagen← G. Ambrose

82'

J. Norheim← M. Ugland

82'

L. Gausdal← E. Schulze

ODD

Start

1

Larsen

4

Hansen

16

▼

Strannega

3

Ujkani

5

⚽

Jebali

2

Palerud

11

▼

Schulze

18

A

▼

Ugland

20

Lorentzen

8

⚽

▼

Grundetje

10

Mvoue

1

Hansen

14

▼

Gunnerod

13

Skjeldal

8

Hussain

4

▼

Walstad

25

▼

Ambrose

23

⚽

▼

Kojo

6

Svendsen

22

Borven

11

A

▼

Hagen

29

⚽

Zekhnini

Manager: Knut Rønningene

38'▲J. Baccay←▼J. Gunnerod

38'▲S. Owusu←▼N. Walstad

58'▲B. Njie←▼O. Hagen

79'▲S. Aas←▼N. Kojo

79'▲S. Hagen←▼G. Ambrose

ODD Ballklubb substitutes

12Hansen3Baccay10Njie17Owusu18Aas19Abdulateef20Hardarson21Hagen27Adamu

45+4'▲D. Dashaev←▼T. Strannegard

73'▲E. Gono←▼M. Grundetjern

82'▲J. Norheim←▼M. Ugland

82'▲L. Gausdal←▼E. Schulze

Start substitutes

24Strand-Kolbjornsen6Norheim19Dashaev21Sjokvist22Nilsen25Benjamin27Sunday29Gono30Gausdal