Start 1–1 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Start

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Molde

J. Cornelius 22'

E. Breivik 64'

4/19/2026

Eliteserien · Round 5Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Start36%

×Draw26%

Molde39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.39

Start

1.33

Molde

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

1.33

creates per match

1.35

1.42

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Start

1.33

Molde

1.35

allows per match

Start

1.42

Molde

1.34

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Start-0.33scores less

Molde+0.01on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Start or draw

61%

Start or Molde

74%

Draw or Molde

64%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

16%

Molde wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

74%

Start 2+ goals

38%

Start 3+ goals

15%

Molde 1+ goals

75%

Molde 2+ goals

40%

Molde 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

48%

Molde (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Molde away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.34 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.33 + Molde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Molde attack 1.35 + Start defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Start scores more

36%

level

26%

Molde scores more

39%

Molde at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

E. Reitan

Start · D

8.2

Match Events

22'

J. Cornelius

24'

Ousmane Diallo Toure

46'

E. Hestad← T. Kone-Doherty

61'

Eirik Hestad

62'

M. Daehli← J. Christensen

62'

B. Risa← M. Linnes

62'

F. Gulbrandsen← V. Hoff

64'

E. Breivik↳ S. Hansen

65'

J. Ampofo← E. Schulze

69'

M. Soomets← M. Ugland

76'

Birk Risa

84'

S. Griesbeck← K. Tonnesen

84'

A. F. Gurendal← J. Cornelius

90+3'

S. Granaas← J. Abdullai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StartMolde

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots11

0.78Expected Goals (xG)1.48

2Corners6

18Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots11

6On Target4

4Off Target6

2Blocked1

11Inside Box8

1Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

399Total Passes566

304Accurate Passes478

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.30Goals Prevented0.30

Discipline

18Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Start 1–1 Molde

Start and Molde drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on April 19, 2026.

Goals: J. Cornelius (22'), E. Breivik (64').

Molde controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Start 1–1 Molde