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Molde vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Start
Start
M. Eikrem 86'
O. Brynhildsen 74', 68'
O. Omoijuanfo 59' (pen), 8' (pen)
8/5/2020EliteserienEliteserien · Round 17Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Molde57%
×Draw22%
Start21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.92
Start
1.06

Molde creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 8 away

creates per match

Molde
2.02
Start
0.90

allows per match

Molde
1.22
Start
1.82

finishing

Molde+0.28scores more
Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Start →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Molde or draw
79%
Molde or Start
78%
Draw or Start
43%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
34%
Start wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
85%
Molde 2+ goals
57%
Molde 3+ goals
30%
Start 1+ goals
65%
Start 2+ goals
29%
Start 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
74%
Start (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.02 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Start attack 0.90 + Molde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Molde scores more
57%
level
22%
Start scores more
21%

Molde at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
O. OmoijuanfoMoldeMolde · F
8.4

Match Events

8'
O. OmoijuanfoPenalty
54'
Tobias Christensen
59'
O. OmoijuanfoPenalty
60'
K. Skaanes← S. Skålevik
60'
E. Børufsen← M. Ugland
63'
O. Brynhildsen← E. Knudtzon
63'
M. Eikrem← T. Christensen
64'
E. Marković← I. Twum
68'
O. Brynhildsen↳ M. Eikrem
73'
A. Akinyemi← K. Kabran
73'
H. Robstad← E. Schulze
74'
O. Brynhildsen
78'
K. Haugen← J. Kitolano
78'
E. Andersen← F. Aursnes
80'
Kasper Skaanes
85'
M. Moström← O. Omoijuanfo
86'
M. Eikrem↳ K. Haugen

Possession

67%Molde

Shots

19Molde

Pass accuracy

54%Molde

Statistics

MoldeStart
Overview
67%Possession33%
19Total Shots12
10Corners5
11Fouls15
Shots
19Total Shots12
10On Target4
5Off Target6
4Blocked2
15Inside Box5
4Outside Box7
Passing
67%Possession33%
579Total Passes275
477Accurate Passes191
82%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Molde vs Start

Molde beat Start 5-0 in Eliteserien on August 5, 2020.

Goals: O. Omoijuanfo (8' pen, 59' pen), O. Brynhildsen (68', 74'), M. Eikrem (86').

Molde controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.