Molde 3–1 Start: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Molde

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Start

F. Aursnes 88'

D. Chima 53'

E. Hussain 23'

A. Aremu 33'

5/27/2018

Eliteserien · Round 12Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Molde57%

×Draw22%

Start21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.06

Molde

1.92

Start

1.06

Molde creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 8 away

2.02

creates per match

0.90

1.22

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Molde

2.02

Start

0.90

allows per match

Molde

1.22

Start

1.82

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Molde+0.28scores more

Start+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Molde or draw

79%

Molde or Start

78%

Draw or Start

43%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

34%

Start wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

85%

Molde 2+ goals

57%

Molde 3+ goals

30%

Start 1+ goals

65%

Start 2+ goals

29%

Start 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

74%

Start (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Start away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.82 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 2.02 + Start defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Start attack 0.90 + Molde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Molde scores more

57%

level

22%

Start scores more

21%

Molde at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Chima

Molde · F

8.0

Match Events

18'

23'

27'

33'

45'

45'

Kristján Flóki Finnbogason

51'

K. Kabran← A. Aremu

51'

H. Robstad← S. Larsen

53'

D. Chima

73'

P. Strand← F. Brustad

76'

M. Normann← C. Telo

84'

T. Svendsen← E. Hussain

88'

F. Aursnes

90'

Babacar Sarr

90'

Daniel Chima Chukwu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeStart

Overview

63%Possession37%

22Total Shots6

11Corners0

13Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots6

10On Target4

5Off Target2

7Blocked0

14Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

479Total Passes280

405Accurate Passes208

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Eliteserien: Molde 3–1 Start

Molde beat Start 3-1 in Eliteserien on May 27, 2018.

Goals: E. Hussain (23'), A. Aremu (33'), D. Chima (53'), F. Aursnes (88').

Molde controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.

Molde vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Molde 3–1 Start