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Start vs Brann — Eliteserien 2025

Start
Start
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brann
Brann
E. Schulze 69'
P. Strand 60'
12/9/2020EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Start34%
×Draw25%
Brann42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.38
Brann
1.56

Brann creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 25 away

creates per match

Start
1.00
Brann
1.88

allows per match

Start
1.25
Brann
1.76

finishing

Start+0.00on par
Brann+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Brann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Start or draw
58%
Start or Brann
75%
Draw or Brann
66%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
15%
Brann wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
75%
Start 2+ goals
40%
Start 3+ goals
16%
Brann 1+ goals
79%
Brann 2+ goals
46%
Brann 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
45%
Brann (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Brann away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.00 + Brann defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Brann attack 1.88 + Start defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Start scores more
34%
level
25%
Brann scores more
42%

Brann at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. DalandStartStart · D
8.2

Match Events

42'
S. Skålevik← M. El Makrini
46'
R. Kristiansen← M. Rasmussen
46'
J. Tveita← T. Grøgaard
60'
P. Strand
65'
Eman Marković
69'
E. Schulze↳ K. Kabran
84'
Erlend Segberg
84'
M. Ramsland← C. Bolaños
90'
H. Robstad← E. Marković
90+1'
S. Svendsen← D. Bamba

Possession

62%Start

Shots

16Start

Pass accuracy

53%Start

Statistics

StartBrann
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots16
8Corners5
14Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots16
3On Target3
11Off Target7
2Blocked6
12Inside Box6
4Outside Box10
Passing
62%Possession38%
503Total Passes306
432Accurate Passes231
86%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Start 1 – 1 Brann

Start and Brann drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on December 9, 2020.

Goals: P. Strand (60'), E. Schulze (69').

Start controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.