Brann 1–1 Start: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Start

G. Koomson 41'

A. Ahamada 28' (OG)

7/19/2020

Eliteserien · Round 9Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brann67%

×Draw18%

Start16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.13

Brann

2.50

Start

1.13

Brann creates 121% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Brann

2.00

Start

1.00

allows per match

Brann

1.25

Start

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brann+0.00on par

Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Brann or draw

84%

Brann or Start

82%

Draw or Start

33%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

45%

Start wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

92%

Brann 2+ goals

71%

Brann 3+ goals

45%

Start 1+ goals

68%

Start 2+ goals

31%

Start 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

81%

Start (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Start away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.00 + Start defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Start attack 1.00 + Brann defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Brann scores more

67%

level

18%

Start scores more

16%

Brann at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Deumeland

Start · G

7.7

Match Events

7'

H. Robstad← K. Tønnessen

28'

A. AhamadaOwn goal

34'

Kevin Kabran

41'

G. Koomson↳ P. Strand

45'

Eirik Schulze

53'

E. Børufsen← S. Skålevik

53'

E. Segberg← E. Wichne

58'

Ole Martin Lekven Kolskogen

67'

K. Barmen← A. Ordagić

78'

78'

85'

86'

89'

M. Mehnert← G. Koomson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannStart

Overview

70%Possession30%

17Total Shots9

11Corners1

9Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots9

7On Target4

6Off Target5

4Blocked0

11Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

594Total Passes256

484Accurate Passes163

81%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Brann vs Start

Brann and Start drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on July 19, 2020.

Goals: A. Ahamada (28' o.g.), G. Koomson (41').

Brann controlled possession (70%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Start — Eliteserien 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Brann vs Start