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Brann vs Start — Eliteserien 2025

Brann
Brann
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Start
Start
K. Eriksen 90'
N. Holm 68'
H. Lorentzen 53'
7/12/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 13Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brann67%
×Draw18%
Start16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
2.50
Start
1.13

Brann creates 121% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

creates per match

Brann
2.00
Start
1.00

allows per match

Brann
1.25
Start
3.00

finishing

Brann+0.00on par
Start+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Start →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Brann or draw
84%
Brann or Start
82%
Draw or Start
33%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
45%
Start wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
92%
Brann 2+ goals
71%
Brann 3+ goals
45%
Start 1+ goals
68%
Start 2+ goals
31%
Start 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
81%
Start (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Start away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.00 + Start defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Start attack 1.00 + Brann defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Brann scores more
67%
level
18%
Start scores more
16%

Brann at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Niklas CastroBrannBrann · F
8.7

Match Events

46'
N. Holm← M. Hellan
48'
M. Soomets← S. Mvoue
53'
H. Lorentzen↳ T. Strannegard
55'
E. Reitan
62'
U. Mathisen← K. M. Ingason
62'
N. Castro← B. Finne
62'
D. De Roeve← T. Pedersen
68'
N. Holm↳ N. Castro
69'
F. Palerud← O. Toure
69'
E. Schulze← H. Lorentzen
78'
J. Sorensen← N. Wassberg
87'
D. Dashaev← M. Ugland
87'
S. Griesbeck← E. Reitan
90'
K. Eriksen↳ N. Castro
90+4'
N. Castro

Possession

65%Brann

Shots

14Brann

Pass accuracy

56%Brann

Statistics

BrannStart
Overview
65%Possession35%
14Total Shots17
2.00Expected Goals (xG)1.22
4Corners3
9Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots17
5On Target3
6Off Target9
3Blocked5
14Inside Box10
0Outside Box7
Passing
65%Possession35%
592Total Passes332
489Accurate Passes218
83%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
-0.34Goals Prevented-0.34
Discipline
9Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Brann 2 – 1 Start

Brann beat Start 2-1 in Eliteserien on July 12, 2026.

Goals: H. Lorentzen (53'), N. Holm (68'), K. Eriksen (90').

Brann controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.