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Start II vs Sandefjord II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Start II
Start II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sandefjord II
Sandefjord II
10/22/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 25Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Start II57%
×Draw19%
Sandefjord II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start II
2.54
Sandefjord II
1.61

Start II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Start II
2.23
Sandefjord II
1.69

allows per match

Start II
1.54
Sandefjord II
2.85

finishing

Start II+0.00on par
Sandefjord II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Sandefjord II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Start II or draw
76%
Start II or Sandefjord II
81%
Draw or Sandefjord II
43%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+
37%
Sandefjord II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals
92%
Start II 2+ goals
72%
Start II 3+ goals
46%
Sandefjord II 1+ goals
80%
Sandefjord II 2+ goals
48%
Sandefjord II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)
71%
Sandefjord II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Sandefjord II away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 2.23 + Sandefjord II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.54

Sandefjord II attack 1.69 + Start II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Start II scores more
57%
level
19%
Sandefjord II scores more
24%

Start II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Start II 1–2 Sandefjord II

Sandefjord II beat Start II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.